Der Spiegel wrote on June 19:

"Friday's deal in Brussels paving the way forward for a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland is the most important decision taken in Europe this year. The treaty, which will bring widespread reforms to the European Union and give its institutions greater power, could... go into effect before the end of the year... Then the EU would get a president, a foreign minister and the role of the European Parliament would be strengthened considerably.

"Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced the referendum would be held during the first week of October. Public opinion polls currently indicate that Irish voters would likely approve the Lisbon Treaty this time around, following their rejection in a first referendum one year ago. Cowen said the European Council had given Ireland 'firm legal guarantees' and that he was 'confident we now have a solid basis to go to the Irish people and to ask them again for their approval for Ireland to ratify the treaty so that Europe can move on.'

"The EU has provided guarantees to Ireland that it will remain independent in determining tax policies, military neutrality and abortion law (Ireland has one of Europe's most restrictive abortion policies). The sovereignty guarantees are expected to be anchored in EU law as a treaty protocol in the mid-term future...

"The history of the Lisbon Treaty is a long one. It has been five [years] since EU leaders approved the text of the European constitution in Rome. After the constitution was rejected in two referenda in France and the Netherlands, the draft landed in the waste bin. Under German leadership, however, the text was brought back to life in its current incarnation as the Treaty of Lisbon.

"The streamlined treaty was supposed to have gone into effect at the end of 2008. However, another referendum got in the way. Irish voters said 'no' and the EU was thrown into yet another crisis. This time the other leaders made it clear that they would not accept the 'no' vote. They immediately began to consider how and when a second referendum could be held in Ireland.

"One year on, it looks like that referendum will soon take place. The mood in Ireland seems to be favorable: The financial crisis has made people think much more positively about the EU. And now the guarantees of sovereignty have given Cowen further arguments in favor of the treaty.

"There were tough negotiations at the summit over those guarantees. Cowen surprised the other EU leaders on Thursday when he said he would need the guarantees entrenched in the treaty. A declaration by the Council would not suffice... It was pure blackmail -- but the EU leaders had little choice but to accept those terms. No one can even consider the Lisbon Treaty failing again...

"Ireland is not alone in not having ratified the Lisbon Treaty. The Czech Republic, Poland and Germany still haven't done so. Germany, for example, must first wait for a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court on Lisbon's legality. However, these are regarded as much lower hurdles than Ireland."